Cliff Mass Weather Blog

Will we do anything about global warming? Should we?

2012-02-12T06:31:00.001-08:00

My colleagues and I often talk about global warming: both about the science and what mankind can and should do about it. We are pretty much on agreement about two points:

(1) Global warming due to human production of greenhouse gases will significantly change the climate of the planet by the end of this century.

(2) Mankind is doing very little to stop this from happening. Efforts so far to reduce the growth of greenhouse gases have been ineffective and we are about to conduct a profound experiment--but in this case it won't be in a laboratory, it will be in the environment we are dependent on for our survival.

The Science

The basic science between greenhouse-induced global warming is solid and been known for over a century. If you put more greenhouse gases into the atmosphere you are going to warm the planet. Just like pulling more blankets over you at night will make your warmer. Both basic physics and our most sophisticated models are in agreement.

If you think using more blankets will not warm you up, then you are ready to be a global warming denier!

Folks telling you this is not true are either deceiving themselves or unfamiliar with the facts. That includes certain well known politicians. Although warming is certain, the AMOUNT of warming is not--there is a substantial range of possibilities, and significantly the uncertainties have not been reduced during the past several decades. (As we have learned more, additional uncertainties appear!)

Unfortunately, this global warming business has become politicized. Sometimes I think Al Gore did far more harm than good; if he had never injected the issue into the political arena, might we be in a better place now? Hard to know. And too many people have confused what HAS happened to what WILL happen. Global warming up to now has been relatively subtle and roughly of the same magnitude as natural climate variations. The big action is YET to come, particularly in the later half of this century. Politicians and a few activist scientists that exaggerated the effects of greenhouse-induced warming on recent climate/weather events have often done far more harm than good by reducing the credibility of the real threat later in this century.

Not Doing Much to Stop It

Virtually every measure of greenhouse gas concentrations shows an uninterrupted, if not accelerating, rise. Here is the plot for CO2 from the Mauna Loa Observator--just a steady increase--no hint we are doing much to slow it down.

The use of fossil fuels is steadily increasing, with renewables (wind, solar, geo) in the noise level (see plot). China is rapidly adding coal-fired power plants, and production of oil and gas is surging as new technologies (e.g., fracking for oil and gas, horizontal and deep sea drilling, tar sands) are allowing us to get at previously inaccessible carbon fuels). Huge countries like China and India want to join the first world and live the good life as we do. We have no ethical platform or right to suggest they don't deserve a similar quality of life. But the energy implications are huge.

Worldwide Carbon Usage: It is Rapidly Rising

It is clear to me that folks, even very well informed folks, are not willing to change their life styles to reduce their carbon usage. I have to chuckle sometime about how many climate scientists I know are frequently traveling the world to meetings (and vacations!), knowing the huge carbon hit of jet travel. If these individuals can't restrain themselves, how can we expect others to? Buying a Prius and going on distant vacations are simply incompatible.
And the recent nuclear disaster at Fukashima has crippled the nuclear industry, with many nations turning away from nuclear power--the only real hope for producing massive amounts of energy without causing greenhouse warming.
Finally, to make a real difference in pulling back from major warming, we cannot simply stop increasing our rate of burning fossil fuels, but we need to bring it down to roughly 10% of CURRENT levels. This is not happening.

Bottom line: a wish I could say otherwise, but I think we are committed to major global warming and that nothing is going to stop it, unless we develop revolutionary technical advances or apply absolutely draconian steps to reduce carbon use? Has mankind ever committed themselves to costly and disruptive restrictions based on a forecast?

What Should We Do?

First, we need to find technological fixes that will allow us to deal with the problems without unpleasant sacrifices. Number one would be large investments in science and technology to produce less expensive, competitively price, renewable energy; to better store energy; to produce energy from fusion or to greatly improve fission reactors; or to remove greenhouse gases from the atmosphere in a cost effective way. We got ourselves into this mess with technology...I think we need technology to get us out. I repeat, technology that will not demand sacrifices. Don't get me wrong--we need to push wind and solar energy, energy efficiency, etc for many reasons (including health and national security)--but they are not going to solve the problem by themselves, particularly if they are not economically advantageous.

Second, we must prepare ourselves to adapt to a significantly different climate and planet. To do so, we first need to improve our understanding of the climate system to get a better idea of what will occur (good for my business!). Then we must progressively make the changes that will allow mankind to tolerate the new climatic regime. Some examples:

Here in the Pacific Northwest, where precipitation will be similar to (or even a bit greater than) today but snowpack will decline from warming, we will need to build more reservoirs to hold the winter rainfall. Perhaps these can be built in eastern Washington using Columbia River Water. Drought-resistant crops should be developed for large areas

Proposed Dam Sites in Eastern WA

of the subtropics where rainfall will decline, and strict standards for construction and reduction of population near coastals vulnerable to severe tropical storms should be effected. And many more. Perhaps most important of all is take all steps to reduce population growth, which drives our vulnerability to environmental change and which pushes the demand for more resources. If world population was a steady 2 billion people, then we would not be talking about global warming.

Third, we may need to consider geoengineering as a last resort. For example, injecting small particles into the stratosphere could produce a global haze similar to what occurs after major volcanic eruptions. The result: substantial cooling. This appears to be technically possible and not excessively expensive (tens of billions of dollars per year...less than one of our current wars). But messing with solar radiation would influence rainfall

and this would do nothing about ocean acidification, a major problem. And once we started such an injection program, we would not be able to stop, since temperatures would rise rapidly, with potentially catastrophic results.

In summary, we are about to embark on the greatest scientific experiment in our species history, and our response to it will have a large impact on the quality of life...or the existence of life...of billions. We must begin massive technological and scientific investments in solutions and should prepare our infrastructure and civilization for a very different climate.

An Unusual Ridge That Won't Go Away

2012-02-10T21:14:00.000-08:00

For those wanting a return of real winter (cold, snow, big storms, floods), time is running out. Really big events are rare after February 25th west of the Cascades, with the potential for significant lowland snow fading out after the first week of March. But there is something beyond time that is making a big weather event less likely: the persistence of an upper level ridge over the west coast. Ridges--regions of higher pressure-- work against big weather in a number of ways: they shunt the jet stream...the conduit for storms...well to the north. Ridges are also associated with sinking motions.

To see what is really going on it is useful to view a 5-day running average of the upper level charts. Such an approach removes some of the transient, high-frequency disturbances so one can view the underlying, slower-changing, atmospheric circulation. Let me show you such charts, starting a week ago and going forward a week...you will see a ridge over us--varying in strength for sure---but a ridge nevertheless. The shading shows you the differences between the upper level flow (500 hPa--roughly 18,000 ft above the surface) at that time and the 5-day average (anomalies)--but you need not be concerned with them for this discussion. Here they are--the ridge (the height lines deflected to the north over us-- just doesn't go away!

You will notice other persistent features...a ridge over the eastern Atlantic and a deep trough over Europe. This trough is associated with the severe cold and snow striking many European countries. As I have noted before, the ridge over us is very unlike the typical La Nina pattern. Why we have had this persistent pattern? I can't tell you. I asked that question at a department seminar at a real expert on the subject--he didn't know either! Interestingly, over the next several days there will be more weather action in California than in the Northwest.

The most skillful long-term guidance is that of the European Center ensembles. Here is the ensemble forecast (left panel) and their single superhigh resolution prediction (right panel) for next Thursday......same story....the ridge, albeit a modest one.

With ridging we will see less storminess, intermittent light rain at most, no snowstorms--pretty benign pattern. I see this pattern next weekend, I am going to start preparing my vegetable garden...spring planting time will be here for the early start plants. And the city of Seattle DOT folks will be able to relax.

Northwest Weather Workshop. This is major local meeting for weather professionals and enthusiasts. All are welcome. March 2-3 in Seattle. Info here on the meeting and registration. The banquet speaker on Friday night will be Andy Wappler of Puget Sound Energy.

Weather Cousins In Hawaii

2012-02-08T21:17:00.000-08:00

You would think the weather is very different in Hawaii than here in the Northwest, but there are a lot of things we share, and particularly today. This morning an unusually strong front pushed across the islands, with strong southwesterly winds before passage and powerful northwesterly winds and cooler temperatures behind. And they even had a convergence zone....just like ours!

First the front. Here is a visible satellite picture around 12:30 PM PST. You can see the clouds associated with the front to the south and southwest of the Big Island, with cooler, unstable air to the Northwest.

After frontal passage, winds gusted to 40-50 mph on the north coasts of Oahu and Kauai, and a band of showers was associated with the front. The long fetch of strong NW winds behind the front led to substantial waves (up to 20-30 feet) at some northshore locations. Surfs up!

But the behind the front something happened to the east of the Big Island that should warm the heart of any Northwesteners-- a convergence zone formed... a kissing cousin to our own Puget Sound convergence zone.

Did you ever consider that the Olympic Peninsula and the Big Island are both mountainous and similar in size? Roughly 60 miles in diameter? Here is the proof:

When a front goes through our region the winds often turn from the southwest to the northwest and in the lee of the Olympics, a convergence zone forms over Puget Sound. You know this well. Typical radar imagery shows a band of precipitation stretching east/southeast away from the Olympics:

Today, as winds turned northwesterly over the Big Island, a nice convergence zone formed in the lee (southeast) of that barrier. Here it is:

You can also see a line of showers associated with the front...stretching SW to NE.
My colleagues at the University of Hawaii run the MM5 high-resolution model over the Aloha State. Here is the simulation of the 10-m winds valid 5 AM Hawaii Standard Time. You can see the general northwesterly winds and the convergence in the lee of the Big Island. The other islands don't peturb the flow much; the Big Island is not only large, but has two very large mountains--as high as Mt. Rainier.

Of course, we have something else in common--the Pineapple Express--whereby moisture streams northeastward towards the mainland...but that is another story.

Northwest Weather Workshop. This is major local meeting for weather professionals and enthusiasts. All are welcome. March 2-3 in Seattle. Info here on the meeting and registration. The banquet speaker on Friday night will be Andy Wappler of Puget Sound Energy.

Latest on my lost dog: There have been several sightings in Brier, to the east of Mountlake Terrace. If you live or work there, keep an eye out! The bureaucrats working for the city of Mountlake Terrace are tearing down our signs, even those on private property away from the street--really crippling our effort to get her back.

The Weather Battle

2012-02-06T22:05:00.000-08:00

Tuesday Morning Update
The pressure different across the mountains has grown to roughly 9 mb and downslope winds along the western Cascade slopes have increased. Gust of 70 mph reported at Enumclaw. Very strong winds (also gusting to 70 mph) on the western side of the Columbia Gorge.

Northwest Weather Workshop. This is major local meeting for weather professionals and enthusiasts. March 2-3 in Seattle. Info here.

A heroic meteorological conflict has been taking place between two implacable foes: (1) easterly winds passing over the Cascades and moving down its western slopes, and (2) a low-level inversion or cold stable air layer near the surface. When (1) wins, the temperatures stay warm at night or surge upwards. If (2) prevails, the location stays cool and sometimes foggy.

This morning many of us woke to find the same weather pattern of the past few days: high pressure inland, low pressure offshore, a strong pressure gradient over the region (particularly near the Cascade crest), and general easterlies over the region (see graphic)

The profiler at Seattle showed the easterly flow quite clearly over the day:

Light winds near the surface, but screaming easterlies of 20-30 knots a thousand feet above the surface (height is y axis, x axis is time increasing to the left, time in GMT). Temperature is also shown on these figures. You see the large change of temperatures with height early in the period?...that is the inversion! I made a plot the same temperature data with height :

Plotted are the seven vertical soundings beginning 4 AM (12 GMT) and ending 10 AM this morning (18 GMT-black color). Big inversion in the early AM (temps warm by roughly 6 C in the bottom 200 meters). The inversion weakens as the ground warms.

Inversions develop overnight as the ground emits infrared radiation to space...cooling the ground more than the air above. Inversions are very stable---meaning they work against vertical mixing. So we have a battle going on--easterlies moving down the mountains, trying to scour out the cool air versus stable air not wanting to be moved out of the way. Sort of like an easterly Godzilla versus Inversion King Kong.

Easterly Godzilla versus Inversion King Kong

During the day, where there are no clouds or fog, solar radiation heats the surface and weakens or destroys the inversion. Surface heating can promote convective mixing that helps bring down the easterlies and warm air above: Godzilla wins.

This morning at 6 AM, before the sun rose, here were the weather conditions at the surface:

Huge differences in temperature and winds. At locations over the western foothills, where the easterlies reached the surface, even at night--temperatures were in the mid to upper 40s. In locations sheltered from the wind, there were calm conditions and temps were in the low to mid 20s, with frost and freezing fog. Yes, 20-30F differences in temps at 6 AM, with some stations within a few miles of each other experiencing radically different weather. You gotta love living here.

During the day, with solar heating destroying the inversion, conditions were more uniform. Here are the conditions at 2 PM: temperatures ranging from the mid 50s to LOWER 60s. Yes, these temperatures are more typical of April than February. You notice a lot more easterlies on this map?...that is because they were able to mix down to surface with the solar heating during the day.

During the summer, the sun is strong enough to destroy any inversions quickly. Midwinter, particularly December and early January, the inversions often win. Tuesday will be another fine day. But Wednesday will see some degradation--chance of light showers and cooler temps.

Improving Education: Getting to the Real Problems

2012-02-05T20:19:00.000-08:00

Today the Seattle Times ran a big editorial sharply criticizing State legislators who failed to support charter schools and teacher assessment efforts. The Times is mistaken and in this blog I will tell you why.

The Seattle Times, the Gates Foundation, the Broad Foundation, and their allies, including the Alliance for Education and the League of Education Voters, have an agenda to "reform" education through a misguided approach based on unproven fads, trendy ideas, and free market concepts. An agenda that will undermine meaningful improvements in K-12 education by preventing us from dealing with the real problems. The sad thing is that these folks mean well, but are harming the very educational progress they long for.

The essential idea of the "education reform" movement is a free-market, competitive model of education, and one with a deep distrust of teachers and unions. Teachers need to be continuously assessed, so that bad teachers are removed, middling teachers are improved, and good teachers are rewarded. Independent charter schools are the darlings of this movement, since they are allowed to escape normal "bureaucratic" rules, can try experimental approaches, and often do not have to deal with a unionized teacher corps. Ed reformers also push the "Teach for America" program where university graduates, often from elite schools, are thrown into the classroom after five weeks of training. The trouble with all of these approaches is that there is absolutely no proof that they work or are applicable to the huge problems before us.

Take charter schools. Objective evidence shows that charters are NOT superior to public schools. For example, the Stanford Center for Research on Education Outcomes (CREDO) completed a study that showed that 17% of charter schools outperformed the traditional public schools. But 46% performed about the same as the traditional public schools, and 37% performed worse. And charter schools are generally far more costly than public schools and often select the most motivated students, while rejecting the most difficult youth. Bottom line: charters offer little for solving the State's or national educational problems.

Teacher assessment is also problematic. The "education reform" movement believes that more teacher assessment is critically needed to improve the teacher corps. That is, advancement or even keeping their jobs will be dependent on their students showing significant improvement on assessment exams. The underlying assumption is that there are a number of bad teachers that need to be pushed out of the field, and a lot of underperforming teachers that need some carrots and sticks to insure better performance. As in any field, there are certain to be a few problem performers, but I can find no evidence that this is a major problem. I am acquainted with quite a few teachers and they are some of the most altruistic, hardworking people I know. Individuals that work very long hours, often use their own money for supplies, and do their best with the students and resources they are given.

If there is one fact that it is clear, from a number of studies, it is that the background of students (family education, family income, cultural/ethnic group, etc) is that most significant indicator of student success. Students from advantaged backgrounds have high scores on assessments and show rapid improvement in skills, while students with challenging backgrounds often have problems. I know this is not politically correct, but folks it is the truth, and it bears heavily on the viability of assessment (e.g.., teachers assigned to students from a problematic demographic may be penalized if their students don't improve sufficiently).

But problems with assessment don't end there. Many assessment measures are flawed (remember the WASL?), poorly written, and don't properly measure key skills. Furthermore, most assessments (MAP, NAEP, etc.) are narrow (e.g., reading skills, math) and don't examine other important topic areas (e.g., history). Thus, a fixation on assessment leads to narrow curricula and teaching since teachers will obviously teach to the test if their livelihoods depend upon. A viral video is going around now showing poor geography, politics, and history knowledge in one of the State's strongest high schools-- shows you what happens as we stress fewer topics in our schools: http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=MHtDF-z77wk

Teach for America is another hot approach of education reform advocates. The whole premise of this program is flawed--that there is a need for scantily trained (five weeks!) college graduates from elite colleges to be thrown into our most difficult schools. The truth is that are plenty of education-school graduates and other with extensive educational backgrounds clambering for teaching positions in our urban schools. Professors of education Julian Vasquez Heilig (Univ. of Texas, Austin) and Su Jin Jez (Cal State, Sacramento), in a comprehensive research study, found that TFA teachers perform significantly less well than those of credentialed beginning teachers. TFA doesn't work, nearly all of the temporary teachers leave after two years, and our kids are guinea pigs for enthusiastic, but untrained instructors. Really bad idea, with folks like Susan Enfield and her predecessor being enthusiastic supporters.

All of the above half-baked reform ed ideas are based on a flawed premise. That the current education system is basically ok, and that the lack of inspired or skilled teachers is preventing adequate student performance. Often "teacher's unions" are singled out as major villains. The truth is otherwise: there are major and systematic deficits in the organization of the educational enterprise that must be fixed (more on that later).

The Seattle Times editorial page and Crosscut opinion pieces frequently repeat education reform ideas and attack those with different viewpoints. And when the public or our elected representatives don't follow the ed reform party line, the response is often vicious. For example, today, the ST came out swinging at our representatives who dared to stop charter schools and mindless assessment. When Seattle voters threw out two school board members on the "reform ed" bandwagon, the ST, Crosscut, as well as "ed reform" sponsored groups went wild, criticizing voters and blaming the new school board members for the loss of their beloved School Superintendent Susan Enfield (an individual who not only supports "reform ed" but tried to remove an independent principal at Ingraham HS, and has maintained a terrible math curriculum in city schools.). The ST began running several editorials about school board "micromanagement" as soon as the new school board members were elected and strongly supports an effort by long-time school board member Michael DeBell to greatly lessen the powers of the Seattle School Board. And take a look at who provided a large proportion of the support for incumbent, "ed reform" school board candidates in Seattle: rich folks from the eastside. It's kind of scary.

Ed reform folks spend most of their time worrying about issues that are side shows. Even if they got everything they wanted, we would still be in trouble. So what is really wrong with education and how do we fix it? I will spend an entire blog on this, but some elements are:

1. We need clear curricula that describe what students need to know when they graduate high school. And such curricula should not be the product of ed school Ph.Ds, but disciplinary college/university experts and future employers, among others, with strong involvement by parents and other critically interested parties. Discovery math curricula is an example of ed-school driven material that is undermining our kids education.

2. We must insure teachers know the material they are teaching...in fact, they need to know it at a far deeper level than they are teaching.

3. Ed Schools spend too much time talking about social change and too little on disciplinary knowledge and instruction on best teaching methods. This has to change.

4. Education research is a national embarrassment, with most "research" not meeting minimal standards for scientific research (the National Research Council said this, not me). Randomized research should guide the development and selection of the best curriculum and teaching approaches...it does not now. Education has to move away from unproven fads and use robust, rigorous research to guide teaching approaching and curriculum choices.

5. The implications of student demographics needs to be accepted and dealt with. One approach is to give high priority to early education (2-5 years). You can't wait until kindergarten to deal with impoverished learning backgrounds...it is to late for many students.

6. Students should not move to the next grade unless they prove they have the requisite skills. And grade inflation has made report cards nearly meaningless measures of performance.

An Example of Anti-Voter Comments by People Who Think They Know Better

From the League of Education Voters Online Newsletter Right After the Election

"We are but a weekend away from the silly season – Seattle voters got a jump start on silly, ... Seattle voters may have turned the school board inside out last week. ...While some think this is just great news, many of us believe otherwise . Two other incumbents were retained, which is good news, but with significant decisions on the horizon – like hiring a permanent Superintendent ... – losing these two couldn’t be more ill-timed"

Seattle Times Editorial

"Now we enter 2012 and Enfield has her feet pointed toward an exit. Knowledgeable speculation is that her departure was spurred by division on the board about her leadership goals and plans. If true, it is no small thing. Students of district history know how quickly school boards in Seattle can go from smart oversight to unhelpful meddling."

High Pressure Surprises

2012-02-03T21:45:00.001-08:00

A ridge of high pressure spreads over the region, with generally clear, skies, lots of sun, and no precipitation. Time to forget about the weather? No way...a great deal of interesting action, from extraordinary high temperatures, gale-force winds, air quality problems, freezing fog, and an upper ridge that is amazingly persistent.

With an upper level ridge overhead and the associated high pressure to the east of us, a very large east-west pressure gradient developed over the Cascades, approaching 10.5 mb earlier today.

Washington State Sea Level Pressure Forecast for 10AM this Morning..big gradient over the Cascades

That is very large for any time of the year. In fact, large east-west pressure gradients extended over the entire region, resulting in strong easterly flow, particularly in gaps. For example, the winds accelerated westward to nearly 50 kts (58 mph) at Tatoosh Island on the northwest tip of the Olympics peninsula (see plot)

Our local models knew this was going to happen--here is the forecast winds from last night's run--a little low, but it had the idea:

The areas around Tatoosh was the site of many shipwrecks, with strong easterly winds, fog, and rocks ending the careers of many a vessel. And winds accelerated to 40-50 mph at several locations over the the western side of the Columbia Gorge, with winds at the Crown Point viewpoint reaching 71 kt (82 mph)!

Aloft, there was strong southeasterly flow crossing the Cascades that descended over western Washington and Oregon. And as that air descended the western Cascade slopes it warmed by compression. Here are the observations from the Seattle profiler (time increases to the left) today. 20-35 knot winds from the SE right above the surface.

The result of this SE flow was that the temperatures surged where it reached the surface, with some locations around Seattle getting into the low 60s. The forecasts were way too cool today, mainly in the lower 50s--one forecast error that few people are complaining about.

Have you noticed that at many locations the temperature is staying up even when the sun is down? At 9 PM it is 52F at Renton Airport--a location experiencing moderate southeasterly flow. But at Olympia it is 32F. Olympia is in the south Sound dead wind zone and the ground is radiating heat to space, but with little warm air mixing down. Why is there a dead zone over the south Sound? Because they are in the lee of Mt. Rainer....a huge obstacle to the southeasterly flow.

And in the dead zones and valleys, where the easterly flow is unable to surface, the radiative cooling fostered by clear skies will allow a cold dead layer to form and air quality to degrade, such as in Pierce County, where a burn ban has been called. Here is the air quality plot at S. Tacoma provided by the Puget Sound Clean Air Agency:

Take a look at the radiation measurement from the roof of the atmospheric sciences building--little hint of clouds....don't see that often:

This general weather pattern with easterly flow and fine, warm weather should continue at least through Tuesday, and the latest European Center run suggests no precipitation at least through next Friday. An amazing spell in the middle of winter. And the rest of the U.S. is also unusually warm., with over a hundred stations breaking daily high max or min records today alone. January was the third least snowy winter and the warmth has been an economic boon to many---reducing heating costs across much of the nation and allowing construction to continued unabated. Bad for some ski resorts and sled manufacturers. But in total it is undoubtedly good for the economy and for a certain political party.

Perhaps high pressure is not so boring after all...

GroundFrog versus GroundHog

2012-02-02T10:07:00.000-08:00

As an atmospheric scientist, my role is to interpret a wide range of information...even unconventional information...to provide new insights into meteorological phenomenon. I will do so here. During the last week, two animal prognosticators have provided a vision of the weather future that are seemingly at odds, but really aren't.

The Snohomish GroundFrog reveals his secrets

On one hand there is the well-known frogprognosticator of Snohomish, Washington--otherwise known as the GroundFrog. At a solemn ceremony on Saturday, the wise frog predicted good weather for the remainder of the winter for the Northwest--a prediction that is consistent with the latest two-week forecast of the National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center for the western U.S. shown below. Red indicates temperatures above normal. No snow worries here.

On the other hand, Punxsutawney Phil, the well-known groundhog of Gobbler's Knob, PA, saw his shadow today, which implies 6 more weeks of winter.

Let me assure you that these forecasts are not inconsistent, considered their locations. An atmospheric upper level pattern with a ridge over the West Coast and a trough over the eastern U.S. is consistent with their predictions and is quite reasonable. In fact, here is the latest 15 day forecast at 500 hPa from the NWS GFS model that is showing such a feature--ridge over the west, trough over the east.

Clearly, the innate wisdom of animals has something to teach us.

Wayward La Nina

2012-01-31T20:21:00.000-08:00

This has been a La Nina winter, but you might not know it. In fact, the La Nina has been intensifying as indicated by the cooling waters of the tropical Pacific, as shown by the plot of the sea surface temperatures Nina 3.4 area of the tropical Pacific seen below. The figure actually snows SST anomalies...differences from normal...which are now more than 1C cooler than normal.

La Ninas are usually associated with wetter than normal fall and winter over the Northwest, but so far we have been a bit drier than normal (see plot for Seattle):

And snowfall in the mountains, which should be above normal, particularly after January 1, is near normal over Washington and about 60-70% of normal over Oregon, even after all the snow of late January.   The latest forecasts for the next week suggests a VERY dry situation after we get past the rain tonight and tomorrow AM. The National Weather Service long range forecasts for the entire winter have been for typical La Nina conditions: wetter and colder than normal, but except for two weeks in late January, this has not materialized.

So what is going on? The answer is that the typical La Nina circulation has not set up consistently so far this winter. Why is that? I can't tell you and I am not sure anyone can.
Typically, La Ninas are associated with major ridging (high pressure) over the Aleutians and troughing (low pressure) over the Northwest. This brings cool northwesterly flow towards our area and troughing is associated with precipitation: thus,cold and wet. Here is a figure showing the typical configuration aloft for La Nina (500 hPa, around 18,000 ft). This figure actually gives you the difference from climatology. The classic La Nina pattern is evident.

But this year the pattern has been different. Yes, the ridge is there, but it has moved much farther east, leaving us in a much drier position. Only for a few weeks in January has a La Nina pattern been observed.   This figure illustrates the evolution of the upper level pattern for the last two months to show you what I mean (colors give the anomalies from climatology).

Now here is the interesting part. The next week should be dominated by a huge ridge over the West coast and we have some confidence in this because nearly all the forecasts, ensembles and others, and showing it. Just to give you a taste from the UW modeling system from Thursday to Sunday.   And the ridging continues in the following week (although I don't know if I can believe it that far out).

Seattle winter really ends in the beginning of March...greatly reduced chances of major windstorms, floods, snowstorms. So we are running out of time for major lowland action.

And did I say what the models are suggesting for next winter? No more La Nina and a move to neutral conditions. Although infrequent, the biggest and baddest storms occur in neutral years. Something to look forward to.

Destruction Hits Two Sacred Weather Locations

2012-01-30T03:05:00.000-08:00

I was worried last week that when I revealed the secrets of the Devil's Weather Triangle near Napavine that some of the weather deities would be displeased. Such are the risks I take for this blog. Unfortunately, my fears were realized and two of the most sacred weather sites of the Northwest have been struck and damaged by sudden and unexpected severe weather. Not strong enough to destroy them, but enough to deliver a message. This can not be consider a coincidence.

My Napavine Triangle blog went out late Tuesday, and by Thursday morning a terrible fate struck my favorite weather-themed seafood restaurant: Ivar's Mukilteo landing. A strong westerly wind surge

pushed down the Strait of Juan de Fuca early Thursday morning, and the combination of large wind-driven waves and high tide resulted in strong wave action pushing under the restaurant. The water shoved the floor of the bar up by 8 inches and water surged upward through the unlatched hatch in the floor (see image). A geyser hit the ceiling, inundating Ivar's pride with brine and blowing out a window. This happened around 5 AM in the morning, according Bob Donegan, CEO of Ivar's. Fortunately, a maintenance worker was in the restaurant at the time, and at considerable personal peril, closed and locked the hatch during a lull in the waves. He deserves a years worth of chowder. A KOMO-TV story and video can be accessed by clicking on the image.

Using considerable resources, Ivar's brought in a large team to repair and dry the restaurant and on Friday it reopened, to the relief of many. As an aside, the ferry Cathlamet came in to the dock around 5:55 AM and the captain (Torger Skolman--I AM NOT MAKING UP THIS NAME) had to run the engines at half speed ahead in the dock to keep the ship form heaving in the slip and popping the auto apron off the car deck. A piling contractor in Everett Harbor measured gusts to 47 mph.

As many of you know, this restaurant was destroyed in another (and stronger) westerly wind surge through the Strait in October 2003. For this week's event, we started with relatively high tides (see tide table below), with the peak around 7 AM.

On Thursday morning, a low pressure system moved eastward over southern B.C., resulting in a large pressure difference building down the Strait (rising to about 6 hPa between Quillayute and Bellingham by 3 AM, and nearly as high at 4 AM). Air accelerated down the Strait, producing strong westerly winds over this gap and immediately downstream (see wind plot at 4 AM below). So with strong

winds building the waves, relatively high tides, and northwesterly winds pushing water towards the restaurant, Ivar's Mukilteo Landing restaurant was in Neptune's crosshairs.

But I was still worried. Was the sacrifice of Ivar's enough to placate the anger of the weather gods? Would they take on my most cherished weather site, the Langley Hill radar? The answer came quickly.

The Langley Hill Radar: Exposed and vulnerable

On Saturday morning, the radar showed a line of intense precipitation approaching the coast (see image at 2:35 AM, 9:53 UTC). Reds indicate very intense precipitation; such precipitation rates are often associated with thunderstorms.

Sure enough the U.S. lightning observation network (which can determine the location of lightning strikes by the electromagnetic radiation being emitted by them) indicated a line of lightning strikes associated with the strong radar echos (see below, for half hour ending 2:30 AM)

As the band of high precipitation and lightning passed over the Langley Hill site, the radar ceased to function, and was taken out of service for several hours until National Weather Service personnel could restore its function. A taste for the intensity of the lightning could be sampled by this wonderful image from Greg Johnson's webcam near Hansville (see below) at 1:36 AM.

I suspect there is only one way to stop the meteorological carnage: we must place some sort of sacrificial offering at the top of the Langley Hill tower. But what? Or whom?

3 PM Monday Update: KING-5 Jim Forman is now leading the polls for the great honor of appeasing the weather gods. With the parka, of course!

Weather Blogs Must Be Stopped!

An Unusual Winter Around the Country

2012-01-28T15:52:00.000-08:00

The weather is rarely normal and most years there are some large excursions from average conditions, but this year is rapidly becoming memorable over the eastern two-thirds of the country and Alaska.

In much of eastern U.S., winter hasn't really taken hold, with record maximum temperatures occurring on many days, and monthly averages being way above normal. Here are the anomalies (difference from normal) of the daily-average temperatures across the U.S. for the past 90 and 30 days (see below). For the last 90 days nearly all locations over and east of the Rockies has been much warmer than normal..with some places of the the northern plains as much as 8F above typical temperatures. That is really large. Guess who has been cooler than normal? The western side of the Pacific Northwest. We can't win! Cooler than normal temperatures have extended down to coastal CA and the far southwest, chilling those poor golfers and retirees in Palm Springs and Tucson.

The last 30 days has shown the same pattern,except that the warmth over the upper plains and Rockies have became even more accentuated.

To illustrate, here are the high temperatures across the U.S. yesterday. 60s in NY and New Jersey and 30s into the northern plains.

While most of the continental U.S. is mild and comfortable, western Alaska is having one of their coldest years on record. My colleague Mark Albright (past WA state climatologist) noted that Fairbanks during January 2012 is on track to be the coldest January in the past 40 years. King Salmon at the head of Bristol Bay is running -24 degrees F below normal for the month so far with an average temperature of -8 F. The coldest January on record averaged -3 F in 1956 at King Salmon where records go back 68 years to 1955.

80 miles west of Fairbanks at the confluence of the Tanana and Yukon Rivers lies the town of Tanana. After a low of -58 F yesterday followed by a high of -47 F, today is even colder with the latest reading of -60F this morning. Even more amazing, the Jim River site (180 miles N of Fairbanks) near Prospect Creek reported -77 F this morning. Prospect Creek holds the record for coldest place in the United States at -80 F on 23 January 1971. Yes, they were within 3F of the COLDEST TEMPERATURE EVER OBSERVED OVER THE U.S.

Now what is the cause of this? A very disturbed atmospheric flow configuration. Here are the anomalies...differences from normal... of the heights of the 500 hPA pressure surface (about midway up in the atmosphere). Ridging (higher than normal heights) over much of the U.S. and an anomalous deep trough over Alaska and western Canada. A very persistent pattern.

According to the National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center this usual situation is not over yet. Here are the predictions for the next 6-10 days. MUCH warmer than normal conditions over the much of the U.S. (even us) as well as being considerably drier than normal. Cooler than normal over Alaska and southern Florida.

The reason...the U.S. ensemble systems are going for a BIG ridge over the western U.S. Here is the prediction for Friday at 4 PM for 500 hPa heights. The European Center forecasts (the gold standard) show the same thing...after Thursday the weather over the western U.S. goes dead.

We have a few wet weather systems to get through before then...starting tomorrow morning... but no lowland snow or major storms. We now have only a month left of western WA winter---after the 3rd week of February the worst is almost always over the lowlands. The sun becomes stronger, bulbs push up, and the lawns need to be mowed again. And yes, we can start thinking about those tomato plants.

The Truth About the Pacific "Data Void"

2012-01-26T21:29:00.000-08:00

How often do you hear statements like this?

Forecasting skill is bad on the West Coast because there are few weather observations over the Pacific.

We don't know what is coming from the west, so it is impossible to forecast in the Northwest.

In reality these statements are really not true. We have a huge amount of information over the Pacific and that is probably the main reason why weather forecasts have improved so much over the past 30 years.

So what observing assets do we have out there? Be ready to be impressed!

We start with weather buoys, as shown by this map (red diamonds indicate stations that have not reported during the past 8 hrs)

Buoys are good, but the problem is that they often are put out of commission with the first big storm. The big ones are anchored, and a bunch of them just drift around. Here is what one of the fixed buoys looks like (46005, roughly 330 miles west of Aberdeen, WA).

Then there weather observations from commercial ships. As part of the Volunteer Observing System (VOS), mariners take observations every six hours. The light blue dots on this chart show where ships were reporting at one particular time:

For some reason there are less ship reports in the middle of night. And as forecasts get better, the ships avoid the areas we really need data---in the middle and near major storms. When forecasts were bad, ships would get trapped in dangerous conditions--now they can get out of the way.

To forecast the atmosphere we need data aloft, since the atmosphere is completely 3D. A relatively new source of information (few decades) is from commercial planes. A number of wide-body aircraft provide important weather data (temperature and winds, mainly). Most of this information is at flight level (typically 30-40 thousand feet), but we also get nice vertical soundings when they land and take off. Here is an example for three-hours on January 7th of this year. Lots of data for flights going to Hawaii and to Asia. But there are holes...big ones.

Well, the sources shown above only represent a few percent of the observations we get. The bulk are from weather satellites. For example, some satellites can figure out the winds aloft by tracking clouds at various levels. Or they can sense variations in water vapor and track them. We get tens of thousands of wind reports per day in this way. Here is a small sample. Hundreds of wind reports!

But it gets better than that. You remember Star Trek when they orbited a new planet and Mr. Spock scanned the atmosphere and told Captain Kirk about the structure and composition of the atmosphere below? We can do that, perhaps even better than the folks on the U.S.S. Enterprise.


Getting ready to check the atmosphere of planet Beta-5.

Here is an example of a vertical sounding (temperature and humidity structure with height) at a location over the Pacific from a National Weather Service GOES satellite.

Satellites can do much more. By sending microwave radiation down to the ocean surface and measuring how much is scattered back, some satellite can tell us the wind speed and direction. Don't believe me? Check this out!

And there is MUCH, MUCH more. The bottom line is that meteorologists now have massive amounts of information from around the globe and this information is used to create a 3D initialization for numerical weather prediction models. We may have some holes and gaps at times, but we are no longer blind over the oceans and polar regions--there are huge amounts of data everywhere.

There is one figure that reveals the impact of all this data on forecasts so beautifully that I have to show you...check the figure below. This tells you about forecast skill in the northern and southern hemisphere from 1981 to now. It is about the skill at 500 hPA--around 18,000 ft, a good middle level. The higher the number (anomaly correlation) the better--100 would be a perfect forecast. You see the forecasts for various forecast ranges (3, 5, 7, and 10 days, varying color). For each color the top line in for the northern hemisphere and the bottom line for the southern hemisphere.

It is clear that forecast skill for both hemisphere has greatly improved over time.

But there is something even more profound. Back in the 80s, the northern hemisphere, with more land area and far more observations, had much higher skill. But that seemed to change in the 90s and the early part of this century. Why? The answer is the satellites. During that period major advances in using satellite data in weather prediction were made. Since there is about as much satellite data in the southern hemisphere as the northern, why should the northern hemisphere have better forecasts?

I was really stunned when I saw this figure for the first time. Few graphs illustrate so concisely how far we have come.

With more satellite data sets coming on line during the next decade, and improvements in the technology of data assimilation, expect further improvements in weather forecasts.

The Bermuda Triangle of Northwest Weather

2012-01-24T21:01:00.000-08:00

Some things are beyond scientific understanding. Weather phenomena that can not be explained by forecast models and high-tech observations. Occurrences that are known by local meteorologists but are rarely spoken about in public. Perhaps the best-known example: the Napavine Triangle.

Napavine is located in southwest Washington, between Olympia and Portland--a few miles south of Chehalis (see graphic). A closer look at the terrain reveals a triangular valley (second map). A valley with extreme and often bizarre weather.

The nearly perfect triangular shape of the valley is suggestive of supernatural influences.

Doubtful? You won't be in a few minutes. During the snows last week, which low-level (below 500 ft) location got more snow than any other in western Washington? Napavine with 25.5 inches. Here is a picture of what things looked like on the ground:


Picture courtesy of http://napavineweather.info/wordpress/

And where was the only place in western Washington to be hit by a tornado last year?
You guessed it. Napavine. Here is a small sample of the damage:

And in 2007 and 2009 what town, located next to a major river, experienced flooding that closed the nearby Interstate for days? Yes, you guessed it, Napavine.

And during the extreme heat wave of July 29, 2009 where was the warmest temperatures in western Washington? Locations rising to 110 or 114F. Yes, the Napavine triangle (see graphic located here for proof).

I could give you a long list of other examples of natural disasters in the scary Napavine triangle, but you get the message.

And did I tell you about the Bigfoot sightings/evidence in Napavine? Yes, it is true...here is the proof: http://bigfootevidence.blogspot.com/2011/09/recent-sighting-report-woman-finds.html

The motto of the town is "Welcome to Napavine, for a day or a lifetime." You better keep your eye on the sky (and the forest) if you want to do either.

But as long as I am talking about the bizarre, I just learned of a new weather threat here in the Northwest (kudos to Dr. Brad Smull). Burial by sand. I AM NOT KIDDING. Last week, there were sustained extremely strong winds along the Oregon coast, as a huge pressure gradient was maintained between high pressure over California and the low pressure systems moving eastward near the WA/OR border. Here are the sustained winds at Newport and North Bend, Oregon (as well as Sea Tac thrown in for comparison) for the past two weeks. One major wind event after another along the coast! Gust were much higher.

In some coastal towns large amounts of sand was blown by this strong winds, burying homes nearly completely. Consider what happened in Waldport (see map),

or what is left of it. Look at these amazing pictures by Jason Durrett:

A news video is found here. Here are a few others I found on the web:

Now those houses are basically gone! Perhaps they will be unburied in a future age, like the buried pyramids of Giza.

PS: A few of you have complained that I sometimes edit my blogs after I release them. Folks..this is my style. I write this blogs fast and then like to go back and perfect them, sometimes based on your comments. I don't want to have multiple blogs each day, except during big storms. Others complain that they don't like me talking about education during 1 in a few dozen blogs. This is my personal blog, please allow me to deal with it in my own way. There are many other weather blogs, they may be a better fit for some.

UW Admissions and Failing K-12 Education

2012-01-23T22:02:00.000-08:00

A week ago there was an article in the Seattle Times describing a large drop in applicants to the UW this year. Considering that other WA State schools have not seen a similar decline and all state colleges are experiencing essentially the same tuition increases, why are UW applications down?

Could it be the incessant articles and editorials by the Seattle Times about how the UW is turning down strong applicants to let in more out of state students? How about this Seattle Times headline last spring:

"Why straight-A's may not get you into the UW this year"

which suggested that
"High-school seniors with top test scores didn't get in.
Students who got into more prestigious schools were wait-listed at the UW.
Valedictorians with straight-A's were denied admission, while out-of-state students with lower grades were accepted."

The truth is that this story was essentially false--I knew this since I had a long talk with the UW Dean of Admissions about it, was well as being undergrad adviser in my department for over a decade.

The truth is that the UW does not reject strong students: those with a combination of good grades, high board scores, challenging classes, and good recommendations (honor applicants only). Straight A students with lower board scores, easy classes, or other negatives may be rejected, but that is to be expected at the State's flagship school and one of the top 20 universities in the world according to some evaluations. In a day of extreme grade inflation, an A average does not mean what it used to be. The average GPA of incoming UW freshman is A-.

I believe this kind of irresponsible journalism has harmed the UW unnecessarily.

(Parenthetical note: my mentioning the problems with this ST article on KUOW is what led to me being kicked off that station. Irony Alert: Kicked off of KUOW Weekday defending the UW on the UW radio station, because I was worried about damage to the UW that actually occurred)

Another thing the ST got wrong was the quality of the out-of-state students: they are generally HIGHER than in-state applicants. Better grades and board scores, for example. (Let me make it clear, many WA State students are very strong).

Now the controversial part of this blog! Is is REALLY a bad thing if we let in more out of state students?

Yes, they help pay the bills by helping support in-state students. In other words, the UW can admit more in-state students if more out-of-state students are admitted.

Let me be frank, there are quite a few UW students who don't belong here. Whose seats would be better filled with out-of-state students. It is distressing to admit, that a good number of UW freshmen (perhaps the lower 10-15%) do not have college-level skills.   They can't do basic algebra or middle school math (many can't even do long division or fractions). Their spelling and writing are atrocious--unable to write coherent sentences. Their student habits are deficient, including poor attendance and note taking. They have poor research skills and have difficulty working independently. Some have poor attitudes and clearly would rather be some place else.

Many of them have little hope of success at the UW and a significant number drop out, or shuffle their way through their college career with marginal grades and no direction. They leave the UW little better for the experience. For many, the problems are not of their making: their preparation in our state's K-12 system was so poor that they had little chance. And the problems of poor K-12 preparation is particularly acute in technological subjects that require strong math and science skills. Several times I have had a tearful undergraduate in my room, who desperately wanted to be a meteorologist, but had to give up their dream because their math preparation in K-12 was so poor that they could not make it up in a reasonable time.

So I ask, why not accept the creme-of-the-crop of out of state students to replace the lowest tier of UW applicants?   Many will develop a liking for our state and decide to stay here, thus enriching our state's employment pool.

Outrageous you say? Well folks, our country is doing just this in a major way. U.S. K-12 education is weak, particularly in math and science.   Ever check out the student demographics in engineering and technical subjects in our colleges and universities? Or the ranks of the faculty in technical areas? They are filled with the foreign born. Why? Our country is incapable of training enough technically skilled young people to keep our 21st century nation running, so we DEPEND on foreign imports. Without them our society would fall into 3rd world technological status.   When I go to meetings on meteorological data assimilation, probably the most mathematically intense subject in my field, I muse that they might as well have the presentations in Chinese, there are so few native Americans in the room.   Check the faculty of the UW Statistics department--how many were born in the U.S.? Not many. The problem is the the U.S. can't keep this approach going indefinitely: as China and India develop, their students will not want to come here anymore. And then we will be in real trouble! We need to be insure our own students get the best education and are capable of filling our needs for a technically trained work force.

What is happening to WA State and U.S. student is really a tragedy for them and our society. We need to turn around U.S. K-12 education, particularly in mathematics and science. And it is quite possible to do so, perhaps even spending less money than we do now. Groups like the Gates Foundation, League of Education Voters, and the Broad Foundation have good intentions but they are pushing ineffective, unproven and faddish approaches such as charter schools, Teach for America, micromanaging teachers, and fixation on assessments, and they don't base their approaches on empirically proven methodologies. They are part of the problem, not the solution.

In a future blog I provide some concrete suggestions of how we can improve our state's K-12 educational system. Some points I will make:

1. We need strong curricula that include all important material. Curricula must insure students have the skills and knowledge to succeed in college, if that is what they want to do.
2. We need to reduce use of obscenely expensive textbooks and materials.
3. We need to insure teachers know the subjects they teach and then get out of their way.
4. We need to spend less on assessments.
5. We need not waste 300 million dollars on new, unproven Common Core Standards.
6. Colleges of education are generally failing institutions that need to be restructured with more training on subject matter and how to teach effectively, and less social engineering.
7. Decisions on curricula and teaching approaches must be based on robust research using modern statistical techniques, something nearly absent in the U.S. educational community.

...and more.

Southeast Olympic Snowstorm

2012-01-22T13:23:00.000-08:00

It is snowing right now at fairly low elevations to the southeast of the Olympics--something that happens a few times every winter. For example, here is an image from Dale Ireland's home above Hood Canal

At the same time it is raining and in the upper 30s and lower 40s in much of the rest of the area. How can this be? The National Weather Service has been spotlighting this possibility for a while and the local high resolution models were going for this snow for days (see forecast from yesterday below-24h snowfall ending 4 PM) for forecast initialized 4 PM yesterday.

The key to this is southeasterly flow and the cooling influence of melting. A strong low is approaching the coast (see graphic) and that has forced strong southeasterly flow over

western Washington. To prove this, here are the profiler winds above Seattle for the past day (see graphic). Strong SE flow through depth (latest observations on the left).

When strong flow approaches the Olympics it is forced to rise, producing enhanced precipitation rates. To see this, here is the latest Camano Island radar image (it can't see southern side of the Olympics well, but you get the idea). You can see the impact of the Olympics, with heavier precip on the eastern side of the barrier.

Our precipitation aloft in winter is nearly always in the form of snow, as the snow falls into an initially warmer layer below (a layer above freezing) melting occurs. Melting causes cooling. That allows the snow level to move downward and potentially to the surface.

So southeasterly flow causes upslope on the mountains, which causes a heavier precipitation rate, which causes more melting and cooling, which results in the snow level coming down to the surface. This effect can also happen in other areas of enhanced precipitation, such as the Puget Sound convergence zone.

You pull the tail of a tiger and it is going to snap at you! On Tuesday, my blog noted that a ST writer was making fun of forecasters for changing their predictions in time. And on Wednesday, I complained about the big headline of MEGASTORM in the ST that day, when the latest forecasts were only for 3-6 inches over Seattle.

Well, the ST began with reporter Nick Provenza in an article "Forecasts Change, Right? Professor Mass" in which he pointed at my earlier speculation that a heavy snow was possible (my forecast subsequently changed with new model output). Sort of like suggesting that I was the meteorological version of Newt Gingrich, calling for moral purity while he was playing around with multiple women. But I only gave one forecast at a time! Monographical prediction.

And today they brought out the heavy artillery: ST humorist Ron Judd, who suggested an "about-face forecasting retreat on Tuesday." As if holding to a failing forecast is the route to victory!

Now a bit of good-natured ribbing is fine, but this correspondence shows that many, including some ST folks, don't appreciate the essential nature of forecasting, and particularly that forecasts change in time, and generally improve as you get closer. My profession needs to find a way to communicate the evolving forecast without losing the confidence of the media and the public. Polls change in time and people don't seem to get upset and make fun of pollsters. We need the same for meteorologists!

By the way, there is a pretty good story today in the ST on the ice-storm forecast by reporters who took the time to understand the problem.

Finally, a fun parody of the local snowstorm coverage is now available:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hHqcf0jcPRk

The Other Snow Story

2012-01-21T09:13:00.000-08:00

During the past several days, this blog was been fixated on lowland snow and ice. Later I would like to talk more about the ice storm, which has been one of the major meteorological disasters of the past decade, with roughly 300,000 customer losing power, massive loss of trees, extensive road closures, and loss of life.

But another important weather story has been the huge increase in snowpack during the past week over the Cascades. Below is the NOAA snowdepth graphics comparing January 13th to today. Big increases. Enough to make ski operators and outdoor enthusiasts smile.

Before

After

A week ago, the Oregon snowpack (snow water equivalent, the amount of water when melted in the snowpack) was only around 35% and the Washington snowpack had dropped to below normal (70-90%). Below is the situation yesterday (click on image to enlarge). 85-100% for Washington and now 50% in southern Oregon to around 80% in the north. Big improvement.

In contrast, there is a real serious snow drought in California, with stations in the Sierra's at 10-15%. 6-12 inches new around Tahoe today....they need it. Utah and Colorado are also well below normal. Folks in those states like to smirk and criticize our snow. Not this year.

The Cascade passes have received a lot of snow (3-4 feet) during the past week, roughly doubling their snow depth. Here are the Snoqualmie totals: 43 to 80 inches!

And here are the snow depth graphs for Ollalie Meadows (near Snoqualmie) and Stevens Pass. Major jumps in snow the past week.

Ollalie Meadows

Stevens

According to the latest model runs, the increase in show should continue, but at a lesser rate. Here are the snowfall predictions for the 24h periods ending Sunday and Monday at 4 AM. 6-18 inches of snow. And good news for CA: more snow for the Sierra's. And yes, those smug folks in Utah will get quite a bit.

One final thing.

With all this snow the avalanche danger in the Cascades is quite high. First we had an extended period of relatively cool conditions and little snow. That resulted in the formation of a surface crust.   Then starting about a week ago we had a lot of snow under cool conditions. That produces low-density, fluffy snow. Perfect for skiing...Cascade powder! (Utah snow boosters take note!).

Over the past few days temperatures aloft warmed and there was lots of wetter, denser snow. So we have dense snow, over light snow, over a crust that acts as a ball-bearing for the upper layers to slide off of. That implies serious avalanche danger, and my colleagues at the Northwest Avalanche Center and the National Weather Service have warnings out. Back country skiing might not be a great idea today, and I would not be surprised if there is some avalanche work for some state highways.

Lost Dog Report

We have a few sightings the last week up in Mountlake Terrace...and we rushed up there immediately, but no luck. We then staged some food and attractive scents (chicken broth) and put a infrared controlled digital camera there to snap pictures of what came. Lots of business: local cats and a white/gray dog. An animal psychic told us that she connected our dog with a white van and a guy in his 40s.

A major problem with us is that some individuals (or others) are tearing down our signs (ALL OF WHICH ARE ON PRIVATE PROPERTY). Some kind people allowed us to put a sign on their property (48th Ave next to the Mormon Church).   Now it is gone. Maddening.

The End (Of Lowland Snow, Cold and Ice) is Near

2012-01-19T22:38:00.000-08:00

This snow/sleet/freezing rain evident is basically done. And we are not talking about forecasts...observations show its demise.

First, only a handful of observing sites in the south Sound are indicating a few light snow or freezing drizzle showers...this will end soon

The radar shows NOTHING offshore:

But most important of all, the profiler at Sand Point in Seattle shows southerly winds and warmer temperatures rapidly descending towards the surface, at this rate we should see the end of the cool northerly flow over the Sound and a replacement by warming southerlies by daybreak (latest observations on the left side). I have indicated the northerlies and southerlies on the figures. Temps in red.

Finally, a neighbor of mine, Wally Powelson, who is an Alaska Airlines jet captain, shared a few pictures from Sea-Tac showing the substantial icing on the planes...no wonder many flights were cancelled. How often do you see icicles on planes? This was a historic freezing rain event, the most significant since December 1996.

Now I hate to bring this up.... but the forecast models for the next week indicate some intense weather in store for us. Heavy rains, strong windstorms, and the arrival of frigid arctic air. Jim Cantore from the Weather Channel may have to come back for another visit.

Major Freezing Rain/Snow Event

2012-01-19T11:58:00.000-08:00

I drove to the UW this morning. A big mistake, with a slush, packed ice, and snow along the way. In north Seattle the freezing rain left a 1/4 inch crust on the snow...and now it is turning into snow as the precipitation intensity increases. (I understand the city is now sending out plows to take care of these roads)

Icy Window at Sea Tac: Picture Courtesy of Seattle PI

Well folks, this is not my profession's finest hour. We had forecast the continuation of the light freezing drizzle of yesterday (an irritant, but not a major threat) and then a warm-up today with rain coming in late. Our models did not indicate that the precipitation would move so far north, so fast.

One thing I think is clear...thank god for the new coastal radar. By 4:30 AM it showed that the forecast was going bad and moisture was streaming in farther north. (below is the Langely radar at 5 AM)
My colleagues in the NWS clearly understood the threat and put out an ice storm warming around 5:30 AM.

With precipitation streaming northward and cold air in place we have mixture of snow over the north Sound transitioning to sleet in the central Sound and freezing rain in the south. There are reports of 1/2 inch to one inch of freezing rain in the south and southeast Sound area (e.g., Olympia, Puyallup), with many downed trees and extensive power outages (over 100,000 customers reported by Puget Sound Energy, Tacoma Power, City Light).

Here is a neat figure showing the winds and temperatures in time over Seattle (time increases to the left, height in meters). You can see the southwesterly/southerly winds aloft associated with warmer temps, a thin layer of southeasterly air below that, and cool northerly flow near the surface. You can also see the descent of the freezing level over time.

At noon the back edge of the precipitation area (image) is apparent offshore, but clearly we have several hours more of this moderate snow/sleet/freezing rain event.

By tomorrow morning the winds should shift to the south at low levels with warmer temps. The end.

Picture courtesy of Puget Sound Energy

Icy Seating at Sea Tac: Picture Courtesy of Seattle PI

Ice Storm: Freezing Rain and Sleet

2012-01-19T07:03:00.000-08:00

From a bit of weather overload, I decided to take a break from this blog for a while, but the interest and importance of what is happening now is bringing me back online (and UW classes are cancelled so I don't have to be in class for my real job).

Over the past day and particularly this morning, something relatively unusual and, quite frankly, dangerous is going on outside--a freezing rain/sleet storm--and let me talk about it a bit.

I was woken up this morning by the sound of sleet (ice pellets) banging on my window. Walking outside, there were ice pellets falling and the snow had a thin crust on it. Yesterday, after the main snow, there was light freezing drizzle (and for some very small ice pellets) over much of the area.

This is a highly unusual situation here in western Washington: outside of the famous ice storms of the western Columbia Gorge (also known as the silver thaw), western Washington does not get freezing rain very often. The last big event was over the southern Sound in December 1996, when Sea Tac airport closed. The airport is closed right now

Why is this happening?

Right now a warm front is to our south, with temperatures in the 50s in the Willamette Valley, while north of Olympia temperatures are below freezing:
.

Yesterday, after the main action was over, we were left with a saturated lower atmosphere in which there was supercooled clouds---water droplet clouds that were below freezing through their entire depth. Yes, believe it or not liquid water can exist below freezing (typically in clean air from 0 to roughly -15C). Some of this cloud water was converted into freezing rain. Usual for us to see that.

But there is another way to get freezing rain (and sleet too): when warm air pushes in above a sub-freezing air mass near the surface. And that is happening right now.

Here is the temperature variation above Seattle now from the profiler located at the National Weather Service office at Sand Point.

Cool air at the surface, but then a rapid warming (an inversion) above 400 meters (temps in C--really something called virtual temperature--subtract about 1 for air temperature. The warm air (and southwesterly winds) have moved in aloft--a typical warm frontal structure (see graphic):

The precipitation area is reaching roughly to Everett based on the weather radar (see radar below).

Over the northern part of the domain the southwesterly air is high enough so that it is below freezing, so there is snow (Everett is snowing). But farther south, we have above-freezing air aloft and rain. Rain that is falling into below-freezing air. Some of this rain is freezing on the way down into ice pellets or sleet (what woke me up), but a lot of it is staying liquid and hitting the ground as freezing rain...which freezes on contact with the cold surface. The current freezing rain is a mixture of the two icing mechanisms (freezing drizzle from shallow clouds and freezing rain from aloft)

Dangerous stuff, that freezing rain. Not good for driving. I just noticed my colleagues at the National Weather Service have an ice storm warning out. Of course, this freezing rain/drizzle is on top of roadways that melted yesterday and then refroze. And here is the weather icon the NWS used for our weather this morning. You see an icon like that and you worry.

Anyway, today there will be wintry mix--freezing rain, ice pellets/sleet, snow, rain until the air warms up enough aloft to turn it all to rain (probably by later this afternoon)

For those of you who like to geek out on cool technology, here is the correlation map from the dual pol capability of the Camano Island weather radar. The pink indicates relatively uniform conditions an farther (and higher) out that indicates snow. Closer in (lower) you see reds and yellow. That is indicating melting snow and a mixture of snow, melting snow, and rain.

NORTHWEST WEATHER WORKSHOP: The Pacific Northwest Weather Workshop, the main annual gathering for those interested in Northwest weather and climate, will be held on March 2-3, 2012 at the NOAA Sand Point facility in Seattle. For more information and to register please check the meeting web site: http://www.atmos.washington.edu/pnww/http://www.atmos.washington.edu/pnww/

Wednesday Morning: The End in Sight and Strong Oregon Winds

2012-01-18T10:02:00.000-08:00

The model's seem to be verifying well and amazingly the worst is almost over. In fact, it should really be all over for most of the western side of the Cascades by 1 PM. Here are the latest regional radar images (combining all local radars together) for 4, 6, 8, 10 and noon:

4AM

6AM

8AM

10AM

Noon

You will note that the back edge of the snow is moving in from the west and that even over the inland areas the intensity of declined substantially. The latest model runs indicate that snow will be mainly over by 1 PM and these radar images are consistent with this. Having the Langley Hill radar on the coast really gives us some confidence in the snow end times.

The forecasts seems quite solid...a few inches in the north sound, 2-4 inches around Seattle at low elevations, 6-10 inches around Olympia and south Sound, and MUCH more south of Olympia and north of Portland. Some extraordinary snowfalls around Napavine and nearby SW Washington areas--reports of 15-20 inches on the ground.

The warm front has moved northward up the Oregon Coast--warm and rain in Astoria and Portland. Long Beach (LONG2) was deluged with 1.6 inches of rain in just 5 hours between 4 AM and 9 AM as the warm front approached. During that time the temperature rose from 34 to 50 F. Now that's a warm front.

With the low moving towards the Oregon/WA border a huge pressure gradient has been created along the Oregon coast...with hurricane force winds from the south (see graphic).

Winds gusts to 99 mph at Point Blanco and above 60 mph at many locations.

And there is strong Fraser gap outflow winds moving in NW Washington (see graphic),

with true arctic air pushing to the SW. 12F in Bellingham with 20 kt winds! A lot of this flow is slamming into the Olympics, provide enhanced snowfall near Port Angeles and environs.

Once the precipitation is over this event is done...and tomorrow's system is going sufficiently south that precipitation will only reach to Olympia. Rain and warmer on Friday, washing the whole business away.

A Snowstorm of Two Characters

2012-01-17T21:27:00.000-08:00

The latest forecast models runs suggest a snow event of two characters. Over the mountains and over southwest Washington there will be large quantities of snow. And substantial snow over the eastern slopes of the Cascades. But over Puget Sound and northwest Washington this will be a very modest affair. In fact, many of you over the north Sound and Whidbey Island got WAY more snow today than you will get tomorrow.

Right now two signs of the incipient action are evident. First, the Langley Hill coastal radar is now showing the leading precipitation/clouds. You really have to love this radar!

And the 8 PM surface charts show true Arctic air moving into Bellingham. 14F temps at Bellingham Airport with a dewpoint of 10F. Cold air at Blaine and really frigid stuff (single digits and subzero) over southern BC. This air has not made much progress into Washington yet, but that will change as the low moves south of us.

Now to the important part. I have reviewed the latest National Weather Service forecast model output (4 PM), the forecasts from the UW high-res models, and the output from several ensemble prediction systems. The situation is similar to this morning, and IF ANYTHING DRIER WITH LESS SNOW OVER PUGET SOUND.

Here is the latest 24-h snowfall ending 4 PM tomorrow (the storm is over by then west of the Cascades) from the 4-km UW WRF model for both the region and western WA. Huge (like 3 feet+) snowfalls over the southern WA and Oregon Cascades. 8-15 inches over portions of SW Washington. 7-8 inches near Olympia, 2-4 inches over Seattle, 2 inches over Everett. Very little over Bellingham. Big snows over SE Washington.

I think this forecast is the best my discipline can give you for a single forecast. The latest update from the Seattle NWS office is consistent with the above numbers. Far better would be a probabilistic forecast: X% for 0-2 inches, Y% for 2-4 inches, Z% for 4-6 inches, etc. But that is for a latter blog. And yes, THERE is some uncertainty with this forecast--my gut feeling is there is perhaps a 20% chance it could go wrong in a serious way.

Finally, there is been a lot of talk about really strong winds tomorrow. My examination of the weather models suggest that the winds will only be strong (30 knots or more) over portions of NW Washington downstream of the Fraser River gap, the Strait, and offshore of Grays Harbor. The northerlies in the Sound will increase rapidly (to 20-30 mph over water) as the low center moves south of us, resulting in a large pressure difference between high pressure in southern BC and the low. Here are the predicted winds at 10 AM.

I wanted to end with an editorial comment. There were a number of folks that were concerned/upset about the fact that my and others forecasts have changed over the past few days (from slush to snow to lighter snow). One individual told me I needed to show more "character" and be strong enough to stay with my original forecast. An ill-informed (and somewhat insulting) writer for the Seattle Times wrote:

"How much snow could fall in the Seattle area Wednesday now appears to anybody's best guess." and then made fun of one of my colleagues at the National Weather Service.

The very nature of forecasts is that they tend to change in time. They become more accurate the closer you get in time to an event. A good forecaster will change the forecast as more information and new guidance becomes available. What would you have them do?

In one lecture of my senior weather forecasting class I talk about the psychology of weather forecasting and how they have to push previous forecasts out of their minds, not compensating for past errors. Forecasters need the mindset of one individual in particular:

Vulcans Make Excellent Weather Forecasters

Scaling Back

2012-01-17T08:50:00.000-08:00

UPDATE TONIGHT AT 9 PM. The 18 UTC model runs are consistent with the lesser snowfall totals of this morning's runs.

The latest series of model runs are in and to me they suggest we need to scale snow totals down over Puget Sound to 2-6 inches. In other words, not a record even over the PS area.. Folks this is a very difficult forecast. Everything depends on getting the track of the low exactly right...first to decide where the rain/snow changeover will be and secondly to get the amount of precipitation right.

Most of the models are in agreement that the low will go south of us...thus, more confidence that it will be pretty much all snow north of Olympia. But having the low go south is a Faustian bargain...it reduces the intensities over us. Right now it looks like 2-6 inches over Puget Sound (6 inches near Olympia, 2 inches near Everett) is the most consistent forecast with current model forecasts. Tonight will will have a better idea. As I mentioned before, a shift of a hundred miles or so for the low makes a huge difference on the forecast for us....a low that has developed over the past several days and over thousands of miles. It is amazing we can even attempt to do this.

Here is the latest 24-h snowfall totals ending 4 PM Wednesday. Big gradient of snow up the Sound but LOTS of snow over the mountains and SW Washington, before it turns to rain there.

If the predicted path or intensity of the incoming system changes, this forecast will change. It is sort of like aiming a rifle...you gyrate around until you lock on. The storm shifts 100 miles north...ST headline could be true.

Wednesday Snow Storm

2012-01-16T21:29:00.000-08:00

I just looked at the latest model runs and it seems clear that we are going to have a major (but not a record) snowstorm, one that is NOT followed by major warming and heavy rain. No Slushmageddon, just Snowmageddon. Near all modeling systems are taking the low south of us--thus the uncertainty is considerably less than a day or two ago. (But to be fair, there is a chance that the solutions we have are wrong!) With the low going south, the cold air can stay in place...in fact, the cold air will be reinforced with flow moving southward out of British Columbia. But a southward trajectory also lessens the precipitation amounts in the central and northern portions of the state...so NW WA may get very little.
Since the forecast is so critically dependent on the exact position of the low, we need to watch that today. There is still a chance this could end up as a wet event....snow turning to rain, particularly over the southwestern portion of WA.

And there is something else...ANOTHER pulse of snow will occur on Thursday.

Cutting to the chase, Seattle may well get 6+ inches of snow during the next two days. SW Washington could get more. The mountains, particularly the central Cascades southward could get feet--like 3-4 feet. In short, one of the biggest events we have had in years.

This has been a hard forecast for the models because there are two airstreams battling it out...one from the north and one from the south. Small displacements of the low (order of a few hundred miles) makes all the difference. Consider that the system has developed and moved over thousands of miles...this is not an easy thing to do.

There has been some hype about this event...it is NOT going to be as bad as December 1996. I remember that well. We had two snowstorm the last week in December and I had 21.5 inches on the ground at my house. Then it got very warm and windy and heavy rain rapidly melted the snow. Just a disaster, with collapsed roofs and slope failures.


Heavy snow followed by warm rain collapsed Edmonds boat shelters

You want to see some weather maps! You bet.

Tonight and tomorrow a weak disturbance is moving through with lots of snow showers. (see radar image below). Substantial snow shadowing in the lee (west) of the Olympics. Some folks out of the shadow will get a few (2-4) inches. Child's play compared to what will happen on Wednesday morning.

On Wednesday AM a low center, with an associated warm front will approach our region, and by 10 AM (42h forecast chart below) will be reaching the coast, while cool air remains in place over most of western WA. Another weaker low will follow on Thursday AM. Two snow events. Clearly, we are just on the edge of the interface between the cool and warm air, which makes the forecast much harder.

Here are the predicted snowfall maps for 24h ending 4 PM Tuesday (first one) and 4 PM Wednesday (second one). During the next 24h, there will be light snow over the western lowlands (less in the central Sound) and lots of snow in the mountains. For the subsequent 24 h, there are huge amounts in the Oregon and southern Washington Cascades and heavy amounts (8-12 inches) over the western lowlands. Eastern Washington and Oregon also get hit hard.

Here are blow up views for 24 hr snowfall ending 4 PM Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday

Bellingham gets cheated! And did I mention strong winds coming out of the Fraser River Valley and hitting NW Washington? Here is what is forecast for 1 PM on Wednesday:

Sometimes so much happens at once that is hard to keep up with it...Wednesday will be like that. This event will do wonders for the NW snowpack...particularly in Oregon where they have really been hurting. And we haven't talked about the extraordinary precipitation totals to the south of us, where some places will be getting 10-20 inches of rain (or its equivalent in snow) (see graphic):

As shown by this water vapor chart....this is the result of the famed pineapple express, with moisture streaming out of the tropics and subtropics towards the West Coast.

I am exhausted thinking about all this weather action. Anyway, lets watch this carefully tomorrow....looks solid...but no forecast is certain and if this prediction goes south, it won't be the first time. The southern part of the Washington could see snow turning to rain. Keep in mind EVERYTHNG is dependent on the location of the low pressure...if it moves farther north than our models suggest we could see much more rain in the mix.

PS: No luck finding my lost dog Leah tonight...but she appears to be running around in the area around 220th and 64th Ave W in Mountlake Terrace, near the Moose Casino. Let me know if you see her...info on the right...thanks...

Major Snow Event

2012-01-16T15:27:00.000-08:00

This is going to be brief...I will provide a more detailed view tonight.

I have just taken a look at the latest (18 UTC) NCEP (NWS) model runs, the U.S. and ECMWF ensembles, and the runs from major modeling centers (UKMET, CMC, etc). The trend is much more threatening for Wednesday and it appears that we will have a major, highly disruptive snow event.

The big question for days...the question on which the forecast depended on...was where the trough/low pressure would go. Head north of us, we get perhaps 4-8 inches of snow, followed by a few hours of rain and then the whole thing starts melting.    The snow would start around 3-4 AM on Wednesday AM. This is the best case (if you don't like a crippling snow event)

But some models...some very good models...were taking the low farther south, which would extend the period of snow or prevent a turn over to rain altogether. The Canadian GEM and UKMET office were going this way. Then then NWS NAM for the 12 UTC (4 AM) run.   In the 18 UTC run both the NAM and the NWS GFS (normally the best NWS model around her) is taking a more southern route. And the 15 UTC NWS SREF ensembleis doing the same thing (at least the ensemble mean). Ok, this is getting a bit techy..sorry.

The bottom line is that there is a serious threat on Wednesday of 8-15 inches of snow over the region, with a minimal turn over to rain. The biggest snowstorm in years. Anyway, before anyone goes out and buys a snowblower, lets see what tonight's runs show. If they continue this trend then Slushmageddon might be replaced by Snowmageddon.   In almost any conceivable case, Wednesday morning is going to be very problematic for travel...I suspect there will be a lot of school cancellations and the like.

The main roads around Seattle are in very good shape now, but the Wednesday event could dwarf the weekend snow.

More tonight.

More excitement: My lost dog Leah was just spotted near 64th Ave W & 222nd St SW in Mountlake Terrace.

Interesting Differences in Local Snow

2012-01-15T21:16:00.000-08:00

Today there were dramatic differences of snow--even within the City of Seattle--that illustrate some of the challenges of forecasting around here.

Some of you in Ballard and northwest Seattle complained that you hardly saw much snow , while luck denizens of Capitol Hill, perhaps 5-6 miles away, got 3-4 inches in places. Here are a few pictures from Capitol Hill, courtesy of Joseph Chan, a UW undergrad (taken around 2:20 PM).

You notice the Seattle DOT plow on the job! A lot of snow.

It turns out there was a band of heavy precipitation--oriented southwest to northeast- that remained quasi-stationary and crossed the southern part of the City. Here is a radar image at 2:32 PM...see the band?

And here is the estimated 6-h snowfall ending 4: 37 PM from our new SnowWatch application:

As I mentioned earlier, a low pressure area moved down the coast. Then this low moved eastward south of us. During a period in the early afternoon we had a situation with southerlies moving up the southern Sound from this low and other air moving southward towards towards the low from the north. These airflows converged together---like an alternative convergence zone--and caused air to rise...giving us the enhanced snow. Don't believe me? Check out the winds at noon. Notice the winds from the ferry runs in the north and south Sound are in opposite directions. And there was a reversal of the winds aloft.

Enough fun. Some serious weather ahead. Snow will pick up substantially tomorrow afternoon as another upper trough approaches---many will get several more inches on Monday and Tuesday. Here is the 24-h snowfall forecast ending 4 PM on Monday and Tuesday, to illustrate. There will be more Olympic Mt. snowshadowing in the central Sound for this event since the flow is forecast to be more westerely. Of course, this is not cast in concrete and the exact distribution of snow has considerable uncertainty.

Big snow dump in the mountains during the second period! But the bigger story is what happens on Wednesday as a strong warm front approaches.

Dare I show it to you?

Here is the 24-h snowfall ending 4 PM on Wednesday. More inches...and most of that falls in the lowlands in the morning...before temperature surges and it starts to rain.

SLUSHMAGEDDON. A vision that should scare any mayor. And one I am sure will put a smile on the face of KING-TV's Jim Forman. If the warm/low goes farther south than forecast there could be much more snow. Wednesday has the potential to be a very major snow event, but the uncertainty is still large....more tomorrow.